Ted Cruz Gets Two Worrying Signs From New Texas Poll

Ted Cruz’s lead over his Democratic challenger Colin Allred in the Texas Senate race has narrowed, one recent poll shows, as voters appear to view the senator less favorably.
A Public Policy Polling/Clean and Prosperous America survey of 759 registered Texas voters showed Cruz is ahead of Allred by 47 percent to 46. In a previous August poll, the incumbent led Allred by 2 points (47 percent to 45). The poll was carried out on September 25-26. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
The survey adds Cruz has a negative net favorability rating, and has fallen from a minus 6 in August to minus 8 points (41 percent favorable and 49 said unfavorable).
Allred has a plus 5 net favorable rating (40 percent favorable and 35 percent unfavorable), down from a plus 7 net rating in August.
Texas is a historically red state which Democrats believe they have an outside chance to flip in both the presidential and statewide races in November.
If Allred were to beat Cruz in November, he would be the first Democratic senator in the Lone Star State since 1988. An Allred victory in Texas could also be vital in the Democratic Party’s bid to hold on to the upper chamber.
The Public Policy Polling survey was conducted on behalf of Clean and Prosperous America, an environmentalist advocacy group that campaigns for Democratic candidates.
Newsweek has contacted the Cruz and Allred campaign teams for comment via email.
Polling suggests that Cruz could be in another tight reelection race. He narrowly beat then Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke in 2018.
A recent Morning Consult poll of 2,716 likely voters showed that Allred was ahead in the 2024 Texas Senate race (45 percent to 44 percent), though forecasters and experts believe Cruz will still come out on top in the competitive Texas Senate race.
“Cruz’s close call with O’Rourke in 2018 took place in an election year that favored Democratic candidates, and whether 2024 ultimately turns out to favor one party or neither remains to be seen,” Joshua Blank, director of research for the Texas Politics Project at The University of Texas at Austin, previously told Newsweek.
“But barring unforeseen circumstances, I think it’s highly unlikely that Allred will beat Cruz in this election, though I still expect a close race.”
As of Monday morning, election forecaster Race to the White House is giving Cruz a 69 percent chance of winning November’s race, with Allred estimated to have a 31 percent chance.
The Public Policy Polling/Clean and Prosperous America survey also asked voters who they would back in the Florida Senate race between Senator Rick Scott and his Democratic challenger, former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
The poll of 808 registered Florida voters showed Scott with a 3-point lead over Mucarsel-Powell (47 percent to 44). Scott also records a net negative favorable rating of minus 6 points.
The results have a margin or error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
“These two surveys confirm that both Florida and Texas Senate races are very competitive going into the final month of the election,” Greg Rock, executive director of Clean and Prosperous America, said in a statement.
“Despite two terms in office, and tens of millions of dollars spent on their campaigns, Senators Rick Scott and Ted Cruz are unpopular in their home states. Neither have over 50 percent support in these bilingual surveys.
“Millions of voters are up for grabs in both states and will decide whether and how to vote during the next few weeks. Their decisions could easily determine who controls the U.S. Senate in January,” Rock added.